"It has been estimated Iran will have an operational nuclear weapon in 9 months to 1 and 1/2 years. The speculation runs that Israel will likely attack the Iranian nuclear facilities. This is a excellent time to dig into the issues and likely actions and their outcomes.
Readings: "Two papers, one is...a very well balanced analysis of the situation and the other is a geopoitical study of Iran through history"
- The Atlantic, The Point of No Return (Sept 2010)
- STRATFOR, The Geopolitics Of Iran: Holding the Center of a Mountain Fortress (July 2008)
Followups, reactions, recommendations from participants:
* Boston Globe - Some interesting background articles on Palestine-Israel conflict, from political and theological history; by James Carroll. Check his biography...Distinguished Historian, Writer, Educator, etc New book coming out soon, "Jerusalem."
- In this corner ("Anti-Semitism and colonialism have trapped Israelis and Palestinians.")
- Pursuit of the holy land ("Amid long histories of exile and despair, return and triumph, all eyes are on Jerusalem.")
- Enter Christianity ("The ghosts in the room during the Mideast peace process have a long history in another region.")
- Onward, Christian Zionists ("Deep-rooted Christian tradition has put its mark on British and US policies in the Mideast.")
- New talks haunted by old wounds ("Until a mutual understanding of Israeli and Palestinian traumas is reached, peace will be elusive")
- Teetering on the apocalypse
* Tuesday's PBS NewsHour had Examining the Effects of Economic Sanctions on Iran
...Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations. The other's name (Stuart Levey?) I didn't catch . Here are some of the points they made:
- The new sanctions are "just beginning to bite" in Iran.
- They "hogtie" Iran's ties to the US Financial System, and those of Europe and several other countries who have joined them. No financial services will be given to Iran if those possibly could provide funds for developing nuclear capability.
- Some companies have frozen dealings with Iran -- Toyota, Lloyd's of London.
- Financial freezes prevent oil industry from getting credit to buy new equipment, insurance for their ships, etc..
- Rafsanjani (opposition leader) says Iran has never been faced with so many such serious sanctions
- Iran is "not a normal nation state. It is an ideological state." Decisions are not made with rational cost/benefit analysis. Decisions will be made by powerful elite led by Khomeni
- Many of the people do not want the isolation of resisting world opinion and the lost jobs, opportunities etc.. that that entails. Elite leaders don't care.
- Conclusion: No one can predict the way the leaders will react.
* Re the question as to whether or not Iran would use their nuclear weapon -
One way of viewing the issue is to be not concerned as to why, but look at the possible results. Using the idea of expected value (used in both operations research and financial analysis) you can look at the cost (or benefit) of an event happening and the probability of it happening. The results will be the expected value and suggest whether you should do something about the event, either prevent it from happening or prepare a response to it. I think most of us would agree that the possibility of a million casualties and the resulting turmoil in the world, even though extremely small, is something to worry about.
* Christian Science Monitor, Reality check: Iran is not a nuclear threat ("Forget the neoconservative hype. The facts show Iran is not and has not been a nuclear threat to either the United States or Israel.")
...wish I had seen this article before the last meeting. I think that part of the problem is that bad news seems to be more interesting that reassuring news.
* How the Millennium Development Goals can live up to their promise - NYTimes.com
"The M.D.G.’s are possibly the most visionary deal that most people have never heard of. In the run-up to the 21st century, a grand global bargain was negotiated at a series of summit meetings and then signed in 2000. The United Nations’ “Millennium Declaration” pledged to “ensure that globalization becomes a positive force for all the world’s people,” especially the most marginalized in developing countries. ..."* Today (Sept 21) is the United Nations International Day of Peace celebrated around the world during the week opening the UN General Assembly in New York. There are many interesting sites to view. Please do. (International Day of Peace programs at http://www.PeaceDay.tv -and- http://www.ThePeaceAlliance.org )
* Let's start a local movement for a return to sanity.
Regarding the march in Washinton to restore sanity ...CS Monitor has a good summation on the Rally to Restore Sanity, proposed by Jon Stewart of the Daily Show - Rally to Restore Sanity battles March to Keep Fear Alive
The Rally will take place in Washington DC on October 30. It is intended as a counter to the outrageous claims and nonsense that have permeated electoral politics in USA2010.
My sense is many of us will agree political discourse has entered the realm of the absurd, but participating in a rally in WDC is not practical. Maybe you are tired of extremists dominating the news and would like to show your support for a more moderate dialog.
Interested in exploring the possibility of organizing a local version of the Rally to Restore Sanity in our community October 30?
